Thursday 12 October 2017

Tropical storm Ophelia headed for Portugal and the UK

Tropical storm Ophelia path: Track shows storm turning into HURRICANE and smashing EUROPE

TROPICAL Storm Ophelia is poised to strengthen into a hurricane on Friday as the huge weather front makes its way towards Portugal and the UK.



11 October, 2017

  • Tropical Storm Ophelia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by the end of this week
  • Hurricane Ophelia will be the 10th consecutive storm to reach hurricane strength
  • Weather maps suggest Ophelia will hit the western coast of Portugal by 8pm on Sunday
  • Ophelia comes hot on the heels of Hurricane Nate, which killed at least 22 people.



Hurricane Ophelia is currently located far out in the ocean, about 870 miles west-southwest of the Azores.

The storm has maximum sustained winds at about 50 mph and is travelling southeast at around 6mph.

The NOAA has not forecast Ophelia to make landfall - however forecasters WX Charts suggests the tropical storm could push past the western coast of Portugal before veering northeast towards the UK.

And a tracking map suggests Hurricane Ophelia could reach Portugal by 8pm on Sunday.

Ophelia would become only the third tropical cyclone to hit the west coast of Portugal or Spain since records began, following a storm in October 1842 and Hurricane Vince (as a tropical depression) in October 2005.

After it has hit Portugal, the remnants of Ophelia could bring strong winds to the UK.

A Met Office spokeswoman said: "Having been a tropical system close to the point that it reaches the UK, the storm will have a lot of energy and there could be wet and windy weather on Monday".



With Ophelia still quite a way out in the Atlantic, there is still a lot of uncertainty about its exact path. The Met Office will release any necessary weather warnings later in the week.

An 18Z Tuesday run of the GFS model shows the storm hitting the south west coast at around midnight on Tuesday October 17.

The Weather Network forecast that Ophelia will merge with another system as it approaches the UK and Ireland before veering east.

The NHC advisory said: “The tropical storm is expected to turn toward the southeast and then south at about the same rate of forward speed during the next couple of days.

"Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday."

The hurricane is not currently expected to have any effects on land, and there are no watches or warnings in place.

Tropical Storm Ophelia is set to develop into an area of deep low pressure, picking up warmth from tropical areas of the Atlantic, before tracking eastwards.

The tropical storm will strengthen to hurricane status for a time while it remains in the mid-Atlantic, but should weaken before it heads to the UK.

It will head across the Bay of Biscay on Sunday, before moving towards Britain early next week.

Warm air from the south will bake Britain before the arrival of Ophelia, sending temperatures soaring in southerly parts of the UK.

However, the mercury will fall again early next week, but should still remain above average for the time of year.

Forecaster Eleanor Bell, of The Weather Channel, said: “Latest model guidance is indicating Ophelia will move in from the Azores across the Biscay area around Sunday and move on towards Britain early next week.

This will push a plume of warmer air in from the south ahead of it. It is important to note we are still a week out and the models will likely vary in exact timing and position of Ophelia over the next few forecast runs.

But we expect temperatures to be 4C to 6C above normal for the time of year over the weekend with a gradual cooler trend through next week.

Above-normal temperatures could continue into Monday before getting cooler from Tuesday. However, temperatures are still set to be one or two degrees above normal.”

Hurricane Ophelia is the 15th named storm of the season and will be the 10th consecutive storm to reach hurricane strength.

The last Hurricane Ophelia was seen in 2011 and was the most intense storm of that year’s Atlantic hurricane season.

Winds reached highs of 140mph as the hurricane battered the Leeward Islands, Bermuda and Newfoundland.

However, damage in the regions was minimal and there were no confirmed fatalities.

The latest tropical storm Ophelia comes just days after Hurricane Nate killed at least 22 people in Central America before making landfall in Mississippi, US.

Nate weakened rapidly after it made landfall in the US, sparing areas such as New Orleans which had feared heavy damages.

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